I'm trying to remember the last time a major product launch like Windows Vista and Office 2007 was met with such universal derision. I won't add to the chorus of yawns and "OSX did that first" comments. But I wonder, have we reached a tipping point where the cult of personality alone is not enough to sell boxes of Microsoft software?
Bill Gates took time out from his philanthropic duties to spruik the product around the world. And Steve Ballmer held court in New York City (see this Biz Week story). The media was always going to make a big deal about this -- no self-respecting IT journalist turns down an opportunity to interview or listen to either Gates or Ballmer. But outside that media bubble, you get the sense no amount of "wow factor" they generate can sway the average consumer to abandon logic and upgrade for the sake of it.
Consider the fact that thousands lined up at midnight to buy the Wii, PS3 and Xboxes around the world. Harvey Norman's midnight sales gig for Vista in Sydney apparently didn't get much more than 100 people. So the buzz differential between these different consumer tech launches is like night and day. People "needed" these cool consoles. They don't necessarily "need" Vista. And worst of all, where have all the Windows geeks gone? Amazing.
Update: I found a few! My colleague Joshua Gliddon pointed me to Jim Allchin's blog (who left Microsoft post Vista launch as promised).
For the average person like me the deal breaker is threefold:
- nothing compelling
- lots of free or cheap alternatives already available
- it will be preloaded on the next laptop I buy anyway somewhere down the track
Young persons of my acquaintance would add DRM rights to that list
Posted by: Trevor Cook | Wednesday, January 31, 2007 at 04:51 PM
Not that I think Apple is any better - in fact worse on some things (closed boxes) and iTunes bugs and iPod crashes - but I think its hard to get excited about the 'everything Microsoft' agendas I think people are looking for the capacity to use a range of products and services from many suppliers. Plus it all costs money
Posted by: Trevor Cook | Wednesday, January 31, 2007 at 05:00 PM
NextG sprinkler launch?
:)
Tom
Posted by: thomasr | Wednesday, January 31, 2007 at 05:27 PM
Windows 95 civilised the PC. Windows XP stopped PCs crashing quite so spectacularly or often. Windows Vista, however, does not take the next step of making the PC a really great home entertainment hub that increases choices instead of locking them into walled gardens of content, which is what I think people really think is the next big thing.
Mind you, not even Apple can do that. It's distracted by wanting 1% of the phone market ... even though every lounge room in the developed world is crying out for one appliance to rule them all.
Posted by: Simon Sharwood | Wednesday, January 31, 2007 at 10:32 PM
I think there are a few reasons.
1. The people who care were sick of the hype and the delivery took too long. They've tried the beta and have decided to pirate it the gold copy or live with the beta for a bit.
2. The people who don't care will buy it with their next PC upgrade.
3. It's not cool to love Windows :)
Posted by: Chris Saad | Wednesday, January 31, 2007 at 10:54 PM
"even though every lounge room in the developed world is crying out for one appliance to rule them all."
I doubt that many people are actually - I think most people (non geeks or early adoptors) think they have enough in home entertainment and that they are already spending enough on it.
Posted by: Trevor Cook | Thursday, February 01, 2007 at 06:07 AM
"I think most people (non geeks or early adoptors) think they have enough in home entertainment and that they are already spending enough on it."
Well perhaps crying out was a bit strong, but if the success of the iPod shows anything it is that people want choice, choice and more choice, with convenience, convenience and more convenience.
Once people realise that they can have 100 DVDs to choose from as easily as they slot a disk into their DVD player today, the clamor will come.
Posted by: Simon Sharwood | Thursday, February 01, 2007 at 08:50 AM
I'm no geek, but for me Windows 98, Office 2003, Office XP, and Visual Studio Team System 2005 were hyped products that fizzled after the launch. Under-the-covers technology that has not lived up to hype: Next Generation Secure Computing Base.
Posted by: Gavin | Friday, February 02, 2007 at 06:39 AM
Good call Gavin. And let's not forget the infamous Microsoft Bob while we're at it.. :)
Posted by: Mark Jones | Friday, February 02, 2007 at 02:29 PM
I think Trevor has nailed it. Vista just isn't compelling enough. XP is stable and secure enough for everyone except complete noobs. We have uber-amounts of RAM and HDD for the price of a donut these days. And Vista just doesn't have enough oomph to get me excited.
The key question for any major investment, including a new OS, is this:
How will it make my life better?
I think the MS marketing folks forgot that. Even reading BillG's recent interview with Steven Levy I got the impression he was struggling to answer that question.
Vista seems to me (and, if I'm wrong, Microsoft's marketing folks need to take a long hard look in the mirror) an incremental improvement on XP. After 7 years and god-knows how much R&D investment, "incremental" shouldn't even be in their dictionary. I want EXPONENTIAL improvements in my PC experience.
cheers
Cameron Reilly
CEO, The Podcast Network (www.thepodcastnetwork.com) &
Host of Australia's #1 podcast G'Day World (www.gdayworld.com)
Posted by: Cameron Reilly | Thursday, February 08, 2007 at 09:11 AM